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Test your forecasting calibration

Submit probability estimates on real-world questions. Your Prophet Score measures calibration using the Brier method. This is a skill-based forecasting exercise, not gambling.

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Will US CPI inflation fall below 3% on a year-over-year basis by September 2026?

Resolves 10/15/2026economicsSource

Will a non-English-language film win Best Picture at the 2027 Academy Awards?

Voting closes 3/15/2027cultureSource

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Championship?

Voting closes 6/4/2026sportsSource

Will the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate at least once before the end of 2026?

Resolves 12/31/2026economicsSource

Will the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope launch successfully before December 31, 2026?

Resolves 12/31/2026scienceSource

Will the United States pass federal AI regulation legislation before the 2026 midterm elections?

Resolves 11/3/2026technology1Source

Will OpenAI publicly release GPT-5 before July 1, 2026?

Resolves 7/1/2026technologySource

Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone at WWDC 2026?

Voting closes 6/8/2026technologySource

Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup produce more than 170 total goals across all 104 matches?

Voting closes 6/11/2026sportsSource

Will the 2026 US midterm elections result in Democrats regaining control of the House of Representatives?

Voting closes 11/3/2026geopoliticsSource

Will at least one G7 nation impose a new package of sanctions on Russia before July 1, 2026?

Resolves 7/1/2026geopoliticsSource

Will 2026 set a new global average surface temperature record, surpassing 2023 as the hottest year on record?

Resolves 1/20/2027environmentSource

Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup be watched by more than 5 billion cumulative viewers globally?

Voting closes 6/11/2026cultureSource

Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup final be played at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey?

Voting closes 6/11/2026sportsSource

Will NASA's Artemis II crewed mission successfully complete its lunar flyby and return to Earth?

Voting closes 4/7/2026scienceSource

Will a video game adaptation win a major Emmy Award by end of 2025?

Resolves 12/13/2026culture

Will the WHO declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in 2025?

Resolves 12/13/2026science

Will a new UN Security Council resolution on climate change pass in 2025?

Resolves 12/13/2026geopolitics

Will a GLP-1 weight loss drug receive approval for a new indication (e.g., heart failure) in 2025?

Resolves 12/13/2026science

Will a major G20 country announce a complete phase-out of coal power by 2035 in 2025?

Resolves 12/13/2026environment

Will NASA's Artemis program successfully land astronauts on the Moon before end of 2026?

Resolves 3/13/2027science

Will the host nation win a medal in football/soccer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Resolves 3/13/2027sports

Will global music streaming revenue exceed $30 billion in 2025?

Resolves 12/13/2026culture

Will Arctic sea ice extent reach a new record low in summer 2025?

Resolves 9/13/2026environment

Will global renewable energy capacity additions exceed 500 GW in 2025?

Resolves 12/13/2026environment

Will a non-English language film win Best Picture at the 2026 Academy Awards?

Resolves 3/13/2027culture

Will Taiwan hold a presidential election without military conflict in 2026?

Resolves 3/13/2027geopolitics

Will a private company successfully complete a crewed mission to the International Space Station in 2025?

Resolves 12/13/2026science

Will the Paris 2024 Olympics break the record for total medals won by a single country?

Resolves 6/13/2026sports

Will a women's sports team generate over $1 billion in annual revenue by end of 2025?

Resolves 12/13/2026sports

Will a new antibiotic effective against drug-resistant bacteria receive FDA approval by end of 2025?

Resolves 12/13/2026science

Will global average temperatures in 2025 exceed the 1.5°C pre-industrial baseline?

Resolves 1/13/2027science

Will the global number of electric vehicles on the road exceed 50 million by end of 2025?

Resolves 12/13/2026technology

Will the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least twice in 2025?

Resolves 12/13/2026economics

Will global oil prices exceed $100 per barrel for more than 30 consecutive days in 2025?

Resolves 12/13/2026economics

Will SpaceX successfully land humans on Mars before 2030?

Resolves 3/13/2027technology

Will there be a formal ceasefire agreement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict before end of 2025?

Resolves 12/13/2026geopolitics

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before the end of 2026?

Resolves 3/13/2027technology

Will the US unemployment rate exceed 5% by end of 2025?

Resolves 12/13/2026economics

Will the James Webb Space Telescope confirm evidence of a potentially habitable exoplanet atmosphere by end of 2025?

Resolves 12/13/2026science

Will a major AI model (GPT-5 or equivalent) be publicly released before the end of 2025?

Resolves 12/13/2026technology

Will a commercially viable nuclear fusion reactor produce net energy by end of 2026?

Resolves 3/13/2027science

Will a G7 country enter a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP) in 2025?

Resolves 12/13/2026economics

Will Bitcoin's price exceed $150,000 at any point in 2025?

Resolves 12/13/2026economics

Will a quantum computer achieve 'quantum advantage' on a commercially relevant problem by end of 2025?

Resolves 12/13/2026technology

Will a new UN Security Council resolution on climate change pass in 2025?

Resolves 12/13/2026geopolitics

Will the US unemployment rate exceed 5% by end of 2025?

Resolves 12/13/2026economics

Will a G7 country enter a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP) in 2025?

Resolves 12/13/2026economics

Will global oil prices exceed $100 per barrel for more than 30 consecutive days in 2025?

Resolves 12/13/2026economics

Will there be a formal ceasefire agreement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict before end of 2025?

Resolves 12/13/2026geopolitics1